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Then, about 11, 400 years ago, things suddenly warmed up again, and the earliest agricultural villages were established in the Middle East. Or divert eastern-Greenland meltwater to the less sensitive north and west coasts. The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling.
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In Broecker's view, failures of salt flushing cause a worldwide rearrangement of ocean currents, resulting in—and this is the speculative part—less evaporation from the tropics. Water falling as snow on Greenland carries an isotopic "fingerprint" of what the temperature was like en route. By 1961 the oceanographer Henry Stommel, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, in Massachusetts, was beginning to worry that these warming currents might stop flowing if too much fresh water was added to the surface of the northern seas. That might result in less evaporation, creating lower-than-normal levels of greenhouse gases and thus a global cooling. Pollen cores are still a primary means of seeing what regional climates were doing, even though they suffer from poorer resolution than ice cores (worms churn the sediment, obscuring records of all but the longest-lasting temperature changes). We now know that there's nothing "glacially slow" about temperature change: superimposed on the gradual, long-term cycle have been dozens of abrupt warmings and coolings that lasted only centuries. Salt circulates, because evaporation up north causes it to sink and be carried south by deep currents. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crossword clue. Salt sinking on such a grand scale in the Nordic Seas causes warm water to flow much farther north than it might otherwise do.
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In almost four decades of subsequent research Henry Stommel's theory has only been enhanced, not seriously challenged. Any abrupt switch in climate would also disrupt food-supply routes. Instead we would try one thing after another, creating a patchwork of solutions that might hold for another few decades, allowing the search for a better stabilizing mechanism to continue. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crosswords eclipsecrossword. Change arising from some sources, such as volcanic eruptions, can be abrupt—but the climate doesn't flip back just as quickly centuries later. When the warm currents penetrate farther than usual into the northern seas, they help to melt the sea ice that is reflecting a lot of sunlight back into space, and so the earth becomes warmer.
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It would be especially nice to see another dozen major groups of scientists doing climate simulations, discovering the intervention mistakes as quickly as possible and learning from them. The last warm period abruptly terminated 13, 000 years after the abrupt warming that initiated it, and we've already gone 15, 000 years from a similar starting point. Paleoclimatic records reveal that any notion we may once have had that the climate will remain the same unless pollution changes it is wishful thinking. In 1984, when I first heard about the startling news from the ice cores, the implications were unclear—there seemed to be other ways of interpreting the data from Greenland. Natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes are less troubling than abrupt coolings for two reasons: they're short (the recovery period starts the next day) and they're local or regional (unaffected citizens can help the overwhelmed). What is three sheets to the wind. We need heat in the right places, such as the Greenland Sea, and not in others right next door, such as Greenland itself.
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They might not be the end of Homo sapiens—written knowledge and elementary education might well endure—but the world after such a population crash would certainly be full of despotic governments that hated their neighbors because of recent atrocities. Abortive responses and rapid chattering between modes are common problems in nonlinear systems with not quite enough oomph—the reason that old fluorescent lights flicker. Fortunately, big parallel computers have proved useful for both global climate modeling and detailed modeling of ocean circulation. This was posited in 1797 by the Anglo-American physicist Sir Benjamin Thompson (later known, after he moved to Bavaria, as Count Rumford of the Holy Roman Empire), who also posited that, if merely to compensate, there would have to be a warmer northbound current as well.
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Rather than a vigorous program of studying regional climatic change, we see the shortsighted preaching of cheaper government at any cost. Near a threshold one can sometimes observe abortive responses, rather like the act of stepping back onto a curb several times before finally running across a busy street. From there it was carried northward by the warm Norwegian Current, whereupon some of it swung west again to arrive off Greenland's east coast—where it had started its inch-per-second journey. We might, for example, anchor bargeloads of evaporation-enhancing surfactants (used in the southwest corner of the Dead Sea to speed potash production) upwind from critical downwelling sites, letting winds spread them over the ocean surface all winter, just to ensure later flushing. The populous parts of the United States and Canada are mostly between the latitudes of 30° and 45°, whereas the populous parts of Europe are ten to fifteen degrees farther north. Then not only Europe but also, to everyone's surprise, the rest of the world gets chilled. But our current warm-up, which started about 15, 000 years ago, began abruptly, with the temperature rising sharply while most of the ice was still present. Counting those tree-ring-like layers in the ice cores shows that cooling came on as quickly as droughts. We might create a rain shadow, seeding clouds so that they dropped their unsalted water well upwind of a given year's critical flushing sites—a strategy that might be particularly important in view of the increased rainfall expected from global warming. This produces a heat bonus of perhaps 30 percent beyond the heat provided by direct sunlight to these seas, accounting for the mild winters downwind, in northern Europe.
One of the most shocking scientific realizations of all time has slowly been dawning on us: the earth's climate does great flip-flops every few thousand years, and with breathtaking speed. The most recent big cooling started about 12, 700 years ago, right in the midst of our last global warming. Though some abrupt coolings are likely to have been associated with events in the Canadian ice sheet, the abrupt cooling in the previous warm period, 122, 000 years ago, which has now been detected even in the tropics, shows that flips are not restricted to icy periods; they can also interrupt warm periods like the present one. It's the high state that's good, and we may need to help prevent any sudden transition to the cold low state. Judging from the duration of the last warm period, we are probably near the end of the current one. Tropical swamps decrease their production of methane at the same time that Europe cools, and the Gobi Desert whips much more dust into the air. An abrupt cooling could happen now, and the world might not warm up again for a long time: it looks as if the last warm period, having lasted 13, 000 years, came to an end with an abrupt, prolonged cooling. If Europe had weather like Canada's, it could feed only one out of twenty-three present-day Europeans. The fact that excess salt is flushed from surface waters has global implications, some of them recognized two centuries ago. Fjords are long, narrow canyons, little arms of the sea reaching many miles inland; they were carved by great glaciers when the sea level was lower. It keeps northern Europe about nine to eighteen degrees warmer in the winter than comparable latitudes elsewhere—except when it fails. Man-made global warming is likely to achieve exactly the opposite—warming Greenland and cooling the Greenland Sea.
They were formerly thought to be very gradual, with both air temperature and ice sheets changing in a slow, 100, 000-year cycle tied to changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. Whole sections of a glacier, lifted up by the tides, may snap off at the "hinge" and become icebergs. Perish in the act: Those who will not act. In late winter the heavy surface waters sink en masse. The U. S. Geological Survey took old lake-bed cores out of storage and re-examined them. But just as vaccines and antibiotics presume much knowledge about diseases, their climatic equivalents presume much knowledge about oceans, atmospheres, and past climates. Then it was hoped that the abrupt flips were somehow caused by continental ice sheets, and thus would be unlikely to recur, because we now lack huge ice sheets over Canada and Northern Europe. For example, I can imagine that ocean currents carrying more warm surface waters north or south from the equatorial regions might, in consequence, cool the Equator somewhat. The job is done by warm water flowing north from the tropics, as the eastbound Gulf Stream merges into the North Atlantic Current.
A stabilized climate must have a wide "comfort zone, " and be able to survive the El Niños of the short term. If blocked by ice dams, fjords make perfect reservoirs for meltwater. The Mediterranean waters flowing out of the bottom of the Strait of Gibraltar into the Atlantic Ocean are about 10 percent saltier than the ocean's average, and so they sink into the depths of the Atlantic. The same thing happens in the Labrador Sea between Canada and the southern tip of Greenland. That increased quantities of greenhouse gases will lead to global warming is as solid a scientific prediction as can be found, but other things influence climate too, and some people try to escape confronting the consequences of our pumping more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by supposing that something will come along miraculously to counteract them. We must be careful not to think of an abrupt cooling in response to global warming as just another self-regulatory device, a control system for cooling things down when it gets too hot. Oslo is nearly at 60°N, as are Stockholm, Helsinki, and St. Petersburg; continue due east and you'll encounter Anchorage. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own food. By 1987 the geochemist Wallace Broecker, of Columbia University, was piecing together the paleoclimatic flip-flops with the salt-circulation story and warning that small nudges to our climate might produce "unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse. Five months after the ice dam at the Russell fjord formed, it broke, dumping a cubic mile of fresh water in only twenty-four hours. Twenty thousand years ago a similar ice sheet lay atop the Baltic Sea and the land surrounding it.