Jeff Schulze: Well, I think the jobs report was a blockbuster report from an economic perspective, but not so much from the Fed's vantage point. "This will be a choppy year but a recession is nowhere on the horizon, " he added. What's different today is that the Fed is projecting that they're going to see 2 million job losses. Equity markets have been roaring with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes up approximately eight and 15%, respectively, year to date. He regularly presents at institutional investor and financial advisor forums on market and economic subjects and is a contributor of thought leadership on these topics that is frequently quoted in the financial media, including the Wall Street Journal, CNBC and CNN. Nov 7 | Webinar: Anatomy of a Recession – What To Look For And Where We’re Headed. Do you have similar concerns here in 2023? But that area is only about 11% of total employment, and this is typically a lower-paying sector. "However, these pressures are not expected to persist over the back half of the decade, " Clearbridge said in the recently released report, "The Anatomy of a Recession: What to Look for and Where We're Headed. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, and John Bellows, a Portfolio Manager at Western Asset, join the head... So let's start there with your view on this morning's job report.
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After 1984 and 1995's pivot, inflation actually dropped in the three years that followed. But there's a very different inflationary feel after 1966's pivot. I think that the recessionary cake is baked here. Host: Jeff, your team recently published a brief commentary where you stated that October's equity market rally would eventually fade off and that you felt that we had not yet reached that durable market bottom. The Anatomy of a Recession. Jeff Schulze, CFA, Investment Strategist, ClearBridge Investments. Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Host: Jeff, I can't believe it's February already.
And the reason is they want slack in the labour market. Ten-year treasuries will continue to rise. But importantly, in talking about the dashboard, it's very rare to see such a quick economic progression to recession, and this has perfectly coincided with the Fed amping up its hiking cycle to 75 basis points per meeting. And if you look at every bear market since 1940, if you had bought the day you went into bear market territory, yes, the markets go down another 15% in general. Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Clearbridge legg mason anatomy of a recession. So you've actually seen strong gains, believe it or not, in construction jobs, which is kind of at odds with the weakness that you've seen with housing, generally speaking. And the key difference was you had a very tight labor market in 1966 versus 1984 and 1995, which had a lot of labor market slack. Do you have any thought on whether we've seen that bottom in the equity markets to date? Jeff Schulze: Same thing with number of small businesses that say that job openings are their hardest thing to fill. And we've certainly seen that continue as the dashboard is even further into recession territory. 7 million job openings, that's still 3 million more than what you had prior to the pandemic.
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We've clearly seen peak inflation in the US. Goods inflation, which actually was transitory—it just took a little bit longer for us to get to that transitory period. And, how many different grades of oil around the world make the situation even more challenging. Can you share with us the potential impact—a pivot happening sooner as opposed to later will have on the capital markets? But I think this inconsistent data environment is going to continue for at least the next couple of months. Clearbridge anatomy of a recession 2022. Disclosure: Franklin Templeton. He will also discuss market implications and strategy. 7 Looking out on a 12-month basis, the markets are up 11. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. Jeff Schulze: Although quite a bit of pessimism has been discounted into current market pricing, we believe that the bottoming process will take some time to unfold similar to other recessionary drawdowns. Let's dig into that a little bit. The new year has really started to move with such pace and capital markets have been quite interesting already.
Thank you, Jeff, for your terrific insight as we navigate the impacts of inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and capital market volatility. So overall, I think the markets had gotten to peak hawkishness and people were underpositioned because they were expecting a more and more hawkish Fed. © 2023 Franklin Templeton A review of the US economy with focus on inflation, and whether a recession is likely this year with Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments. Host: Another phrase that I've seen and heard used with great frequency is mixed economic signals. And one of the biggest drivers of inflation is labor market and higher wage growth. History, as well as supportive consumer and business fundamentals, suggest another elongated expansion could be on the cards. A very fast transition, historically speaking. And because monetary policy never got restrictive long enough, the economy had this yo-yo experience that really continued until then Fed Chair Paul Volcker committed to breaking inflation in 1980. Mallowstreet University Digital Roundtable: Anatomy of a Recession - What to Look for and Where we are Headed – mallowstreet – A Better Retirement for Everyone. So, in order for the Fed to feel comfortable that inflation is not going to be here more durably, you need to see weakness in the labor market. WEALTHTRACK Episode #1908 published on August 20, 2022. And it shouldn't be a surprise. This is a very, very strong backdrop for labor demand. Copyright © 2023 Franklin Templeton.
Clearbridge Anatomy Of A Recession 2022
Corey joined ClearBridge in 2014 and has ten years of investment industry experience. But I think it was the first time that Powell was back to dovish Powell. So, things are cooling, but they're not cooling enough for the Fed to feel comfortable that wages are coming down, inflation is going back to trend. 1% on average, 12 months out, the markets are up over 11% on average. Based on the four-year presidential cycle. Anatomy of a recession clearbridge q4. So recession is definitely any cards, in your view. And we hope you'll join us next time, when we uncover more insights from our on the ground investment professionals. Treasuries are direct debt obligations issued and backed by the "full faith and credit" of the U. government. Or, will we see further rises in oil and prices at the pump? But we're nowhere close to a red signal with initial jobless claims with the latest release. And with the three major measures of wage growth, although down from the peak, none of them have moved down in a sustainable basis. So, it's really a small business story when you're talking about this insatiable labour demand.
5% of individuals have ARMs. This is an informational seminar. 5% on an annualized basis during the period between green and the next recession, and an even stronger 10. Find us on social media: For current & accurate updates: Support Our Mission: If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks then look no further. The homebuilder survey, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), is at a 33 level. Market Volatility: Will it Last? And since the market has gotten a head start in pricing this, I think that's probably the dynamic that will take place. So I think given the weakness that you've seen in just quality and dividend growers in general here recently, I think it represents a really good opportunity for those to ride out some of this volatility. Putting the selloff in equity markets in perspective.
So how about anything additional relative to the labour market in that equation? FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions, and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Host: I noticed that the December 31st update of the Recession Risk Dashboard from ClearBridge had no change. 2022 will mark a year of transition from government stimulating the economy to the government putting on the brakes, just as it did in 2011 and 1994 in the aftermath of other crises, he said. And the largest of these counter-trend rallies was over 20% in each case, and the longest lasted 101 trading days or four and a half months. They ask small businesses two important questions in that survey.
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