The Atlantic would be even saltier if it didn't mix with the Pacific, in long, loopy currents. A slightly exaggerated version of our present know-something-do-nothing state of affairs is know-nothing-do-nothing: a reduction in science as usual, further limiting our chances of discovering a way out. Three sheets in the wind meaning. Large-scale flushing at both those sites is certainly a highly variable process, and perhaps a somewhat fragile one as well. Increasing amounts of sea ice and clouds could reflect more sunlight back into space, but the geochemist Wallace Broecker suggests that a major greenhouse gas is disturbed by the failure of the salt conveyor, and that this affects the amount of heat retained. Pollen cores are still a primary means of seeing what regional climates were doing, even though they suffer from poorer resolution than ice cores (worms churn the sediment, obscuring records of all but the longest-lasting temperature changes). A lake surface cooling down in the autumn will eventually sink into the less-dense-because-warmer waters below, mixing things up.
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This would be a worldwide problem—and could lead to a Third World War—but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The populous parts of the United States and Canada are mostly between the latitudes of 30° and 45°, whereas the populous parts of Europe are ten to fifteen degrees farther north. They are utterly unlike the changes that one would expect from accumulating carbon dioxide or the setting adrift of ice shelves from Antarctica. What is 3 sheets to the wind. In discussing the ice ages there is a tendency to think of warm as good—and therefore of warming as better. Fortunately, big parallel computers have proved useful for both global climate modeling and detailed modeling of ocean circulation. Like a half-beaten cake mix, with strands of egg still visible, the ocean has a lot of blobs and streams within it. They even show the flips. That, in turn, makes the air drier.
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We could go back to ice-age temperatures within a decade—and judging from recent discoveries, an abrupt cooling could be triggered by our current global-warming trend. But we can't assume that anything like this will counteract our longer-term flurry of carbon-dioxide emissions. Door latches suddenly give way. By 250, 000 years ago Homo erectushad died out, after a run of almost two million years. Subarctic ocean currents were reaching the southern California coastline, and Santa Barbara must have been as cold as Juneau is now. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crossword puzzle. Even the tropics cool down by about nine degrees during an abrupt cooling, and it is hard to imagine what in the past could have disturbed the whole earth's climate on this scale. Retained heat eventually melts the ice, in a cycle that recurs about every five years. There are a few obvious precursors to flushing failure. Berlin is up at about 52°, Copenhagen and Moscow at about 56°. Were fjord floods causing flushing to fail, because the downwelling sites were fairly close to the fjords, it is obvious that we could solve the problem.
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This tends to stagger the imagination, immediately conjuring up visions of terraforming on a science-fiction scale—and so we shake our heads and say, "Better to fight global warming by consuming less, " and so forth. For Europe to be as agriculturally productive as it is (it supports more than twice the population of the United States and Canada), all those cold, dry winds that blow eastward across the North Atlantic from Canada must somehow be warmed up. A quick fix, such as bombing an ice dam, might then be possible. For example, I can imagine that ocean currents carrying more warm surface waters north or south from the equatorial regions might, in consequence, cool the Equator somewhat. These carry the North Atlantic's excess salt southward from the bottom of the Atlantic, around the tip of Africa, through the Indian Ocean, and up around the Pacific Ocean. Though combating global warming is obviously on the agenda for preventing a cold flip, we could easily be blindsided by stability problems if we allow global warming per se to remain the main focus of our climate-change efforts. Any meltwater coming in behind the dam stayed there. Its snout ran into the opposite side, blocking the fjord with an ice dam. To the long list of predicted consequences of global warming—stronger storms, methane release, habitat changes, ice-sheet melting, rising seas, stronger El Niños, killer heat waves—we must now add an abrupt, catastrophic cooling. The discovery of abrupt climate changes has been spread out over the past fifteen years, and is well known to readers of major scientific journals such as Scienceand abruptness data are convincing. Medieval cathedral builders learned from their design mistakes over the centuries, and their undertakings were a far larger drain on the economic resources and people power of their day than anything yet discussed for stabilizing the climate in the twenty-first century. A nice little Amazon-sized waterfall flows over the ridge that connects Spain with Morocco, 800 feet below the surface of the strait. What could possibly halt the salt-conveyor belt that brings tropical heat so much farther north and limits the formation of ice sheets?
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When that annual flushing fails for some years, the conveyor belt stops moving and so heat stops flowing so far north—and apparently we're popped back into the low state. The most recent big cooling started about 12, 700 years ago, right in the midst of our last global warming. Nothing like this happens in the Pacific Ocean, but the Pacific is nonetheless affected, because the sink in the Nordic Seas is part of a vast worldwide salt-conveyor belt. Thus we might dig a wide sea-level Panama Canal in stages, carefully managing the changeover.
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Oslo is nearly at 60°N, as are Stockholm, Helsinki, and St. Petersburg; continue due east and you'll encounter Anchorage. In almost four decades of subsequent research Henry Stommel's theory has only been enhanced, not seriously challenged. We need heat in the right places, such as the Greenland Sea, and not in others right next door, such as Greenland itself. Water falling as snow on Greenland carries an isotopic "fingerprint" of what the temperature was like en route. When there has been a lot of evaporation, surface waters are saltier than usual. Although we can't do much about everyday weather, we may nonetheless be able to stabilize the climate enough to prevent an abrupt cooling. Then it was hoped that the abrupt flips were somehow caused by continental ice sheets, and thus would be unlikely to recur, because we now lack huge ice sheets over Canada and Northern Europe. Many ice sheets had already half melted, dumping a lot of fresh water into the ocean. A stabilized climate must have a wide "comfort zone, " and be able to survive the El Niños of the short term. If blocked by ice dams, fjords make perfect reservoirs for meltwater. When the ice cores demonstrated the abrupt onset of the Younger Dryas, researchers wanted to know how widespread this event was. Temperature records suggest that there is some grand mechanism underlying all of this, and that it has two major states. Instead we would try one thing after another, creating a patchwork of solutions that might hold for another few decades, allowing the search for a better stabilizing mechanism to continue.
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Man-made global warming is likely to achieve exactly the opposite—warming Greenland and cooling the Greenland Sea. There is also a great deal of unsalted water in Greenland's glaciers, just uphill from the major salt sinks. Because such a cooling would occur too quickly for us to make readjustments in agricultural productivity and supply, it would be a potentially civilization-shattering affair, likely to cause an unprecedented population crash. Because water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas, this decrease in average humidity would cool things globally. Timing could be everything, given the delayed effects from inch-per-second circulation patterns, but that, too, potentially has a low-tech solution: build dams across the major fjord systems and hold back the meltwater at critical times. When the warm currents penetrate farther than usual into the northern seas, they help to melt the sea ice that is reflecting a lot of sunlight back into space, and so the earth becomes warmer. But we may be able to do something to delay an abrupt cooling. It's also clear that sufficient global warming could trigger an abrupt cooling in at least two ways—by increasing high-latitude rainfall or by melting Greenland's ice, both of which could put enough fresh water into the ocean surface to suppress flushing. Salt circulates, because evaporation up north causes it to sink and be carried south by deep currents. The Mediterranean waters flowing out of the bottom of the Strait of Gibraltar into the Atlantic Ocean are about 10 percent saltier than the ocean's average, and so they sink into the depths of the Atlantic. We have to discover what has made the climate of the past 8, 000 years relatively stable, and then figure out how to prop it up. Plummeting crop yields would cause some powerful countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands—if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, would go marauding, both at home and across the borders. Or divert eastern-Greenland meltwater to the less sensitive north and west coasts.
Oceans are not well mixed at any time. It has been called the Nordic Seas heat pump. Our goal must be to stabilize the climate in its favorable mode and ensure that enough equatorial heat continues to flow into the waters around Greenland and Norway. What paleoclimate and oceanography researchers know of the mechanisms underlying such a climate flip suggests that global warming could start one in several different ways. Again, the difference between them amounts to nine to eighteen degrees—a range that may depend on how much ice there is to slow the responses. Scientists have known for some time that the previous warm period started 130, 000 years ago and ended 117, 000 years ago, with the return of cold temperatures that led to an ice age.
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