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Current IPO management is unknown (former Chief Sarah Kendall having left back in November, and a replacement not yet announced), but if you were management, how would you allocate IPO's staffing and fee revenue resources? Congress did not, after all, pass the EAGLE Act or repeal country caps as part of FY2023 appropriations, which means that (for now) EB-5 visa availability remains constrained/protected by caps that limit any one country to 7% of visas in oversubscribed categories. The future wait times associated with that scary queue depend on (1) how many petitioners/applicants in the queue will ultimately give up/lose eligibility before they can clam a visa (likely a large number given the untenable wait times looming for Chinese and Indians near the end of the queue), and (2) how many EB-5 visas will be issued per year from now on, with the base case being 9, 940 EB-5 visas * 68% unreserved * 7% country cap = up to 473 to applicants of each country. In light of these calculations, consider the cost/benefit of increasing total EB-5 market potential by about 1, 000 investments a year via 3, 000 set-aside visas for new TEA investors. Thus the talking point that reserved visas should only apply "prospectively. " A No discussion, ONLY EB GC APPROVAL MESSAGES, - Primary GC Derivative Pending, - Derivative file pending, - Case Remains Pending (CRP) After GC. For example, South Koreans got 695 EB-5 visas in 2019 (the most recent "normal" year) but only 396 visas in 2022 (86% by consular processing), despite the fact that 909 South Korean EB-5 applicants were ready and registered at the National Visa Center at the start of 2022. And according to Department of State interpretation, all EB-5 applicants with pre-March 2022 priority dates can only now qualify for a visa in the new 68% unreserved category, regardless of whether they invested in a TEA that matches new definitions. Over 95% of the estimated total EB-5 applicants are likely associated with regional centers, judging by past experience. Former Coinbase product manager pleads guilty to criminal charges in landmark case. "New Job Creation and TEA Rules in the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 Revised and Explained" by Scott Barnhart and Adam Greene. 5 months in November, and and 33 months in December, per my log of contemporary reports. More I-526 were filed in the last week in June 2021 than in the entire previous year and half.
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More investors do not fit within visa availability. I start with a focus on I-526 approvals, since that's what drives the EB-5 process. Telegram surrendered report data to despite. See my Processing Data page with updated charts and detail for I-526, I-829, and I-485 processing through the end of the year. And Iranians (considering the often arduous source of funds path). USCIS published form receipt and processing data for FY2022 Q4 (July to September 2022), and I also received data unofficially for EB-5 adjudications in October to December 2022. From the 4th of July holiday until the end of July (July 6-30), IPO issued 16 I-526 approvals and 32 denials.
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Trend charts also show I-485 processing issues that predate the regional center program expiration, and even the pandemic. As industry negotiators keep up their "my way or nothing" positions, they must think about the implications associated with that amount of money in the economy, if not that number of tender individual human beings dependent on regional center program authorization. Members of the diaspora who are not firmly settled in third countries are facing a real risk of detention and refoulement. Telegram report says data to despite. Or would face that wait, except that it exceeds what many applicants (not to mention their RCs, projects, and investments) can practically bear, predictably leading to many queue-shortening drop-outs/failures. Minority Country Protection: The new law does not change the rule that protects low-volume countries with an annual 7% per country limit – a cap that high-volume countries may only exceed if and when there's insufficient demand for available visas. Reserved visas can only have an incentive function if they can offer a priority/timing advantage to new investors, which is only possible if the visas are not absorbed by the many people already in the backlog waiting for visas. People in government and industry who want to pave the way for future EB-5 investment and more I-526 (I-526E) filings must look at processing factors as of today.
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The grandfathering language in the new law protects past applicants from denials based on the expiration of regional center program authorization, but not explicitly from denials based on changes resulting from new legislation. The denial picture is more murky, since USCIS mixes denials and withdrawals, but I note generally that denied petitions tend to be older than approved petitions. The new law creates visa reserves that work if they restrict 32% of visas such that those visas can't be issued to the oldest priority dates, and must be issued to post-2022 priority dates or go unused. While USCIS does not report data specific to EB-5 I-485, I always check the category-wide I-485 report and look at performance numbers for the California Service Center, where most (all? ) Processing and Timing Questions. I have not yet been given I-829 data or staffing data, so I can't tell whether the I-526 loss is temporary, and whether it is balanced by gains for I-829. 6 Part G, and the EB-5 page at still say that the minimum EB-5 investment amount is $1. And again, I think that's why it's going to be important to clearly interpret how you distinguish unused numbers. 1 years for I-485, and 7. Last week, the USCIS Citizenship & Immigration Data page was updated with data reports for FY2021 Q2 (January to March 2021). Case remains Pending | Lawfully. But my first priority is articles on the new law and how reserved visas will affect the China backlog. Form I-956K Promoter Registration.
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The December 2021 Visa Bulletin has a "Current" Final Action Date and Filing Date for China in the 5th Non-Regional Center preference category (C5 and T5). If IPO continues to process I-829 at a rate of about 150/month, then it will take 11, 160/150=75 months to clear the current pending inventory. For example comparing 2022 with 2019 visa issuance, China got fewer visas last year through consular processing but five times as many visas through status adjustment. EB2-1 485 case remains pending?? | Lawfully. Congress created this employment-based fifth preference immigrant visa category (EB-5) to benefit the U. economy by providing an incentive for foreign capital investment that creates or preserves U. jobs. "
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I note that 2/3 of IPO's actions in July 2021 were sending RFEs and NOIDs, supporting my anecdotal observation that IPO rarely decides a direct EB-5 I-526 these days without sending an RFE first – often, an RFE that basically requests I-829 evidence. Another definition could be "Data withheld to disguise our counting errors. " The data supports a reasonable hypothesis: that the longer an I-526 stays unadjudicated, the more likely it is to end in denial or withdrawal. Note also my page of EB5 Timing resources. Department of State has published Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2023. Case remains pending telegram group members. IPO ramped down activity overall, and what it did was mainly to RFE and deny petitions with priority dates from before 2015 through late 2019.
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The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 is law since March 15, 2022. Consider that the Visa Bulletin was "Current" for China in April 2015, but a Chinese who filed I-526 in April 2015 was not "current" by the time he reached the visa stage, and indeed didn't get a chance for a visa until March 2020. On August 11, 2021, several UN Special Procedures mandate holders sent an urgent appeal to Morocco, recalling the absolute and non-derogable prohibition against returning a person to a place where they would be at risk of torture or other ill- treatment. I tend to disregard this number because it's (1) not predictive (simply reflects one point of past performance) and (2) not generally applicable even to past performance (the processing time range behind this median is extremely wide, as further discussed below). Thus far, the highest that EB-5 demand under per-country limits has ever gone is 5, 851 total in FY2019 (other visas that year were "otherwise unused" and thus issued to the oldest Chinese applicants). I am working on an in-depth article discussing the rule's EB-5-related content.
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Their efforts topped out at about 450 decisions per month in Summer 2017. I haven't had time to write about this yet (and waiting on the answers to a couple questions), but note also that IIUSA has nicely published the slides from its April 2022 conference presentation with Charles Oppenheim on What the Latest EB-5 Data is Telling Us. For the on-going pandemic impact on consular processing, see the NVC Immigrant Visa Backlog Report page. I have prepared a series of charts with data to help inform the discussion. In contradistinction to some "golden visa" programs around the world, the U. EB-5 program is not a "cash for passports" arrangement. And if you followed that logic, then the only numbers that ultimately remained unused after the fall-up provision would then fall across for the next year's set-aside limit. USCIS has published Form I-956K, Registration for Direct and Third-Party Promoters. As it happens, expectations have generally been moderate for most of the EB-5 ecosystem. This is a great chance to submit your view on the application/implementation of regional center requirements, because a responsible person at DHS is compelled to actually read and respond to each comment made through the regulatory process. USCIS will accept input on the issue of whether the I-956G filing requirement should be deferred to December 2023 based on input from Stakeholders that much of the information is duplicative with the I-956 being filed in December 2022.
Quoted from minute 58] Joseph Barnett: Can I try to paraphrase what you mentioned before, Charlie, and let me know if I'm getting this right here. Or did many Indians get lucky just because they happened to be in the US, unlike most Chinese and Vietnamese EB-5 applicants with earlier priority dates? In the year shown in the slide example, the number of leftover visas for the oldest (Chinese) priority dates falls from 5, 200 to 1, 670. This government department desperately needs attention and accountability.
When the regional center program lapsed, thus temporarily reducing the I-526 processing workload by at least 90% and eliminating the I-924 and RC compliance workloads, I expected a silver lining in the form of more resources for direct EB-5 and I-829. M. Jaddou now confirmed as USCIS Director. For a reminder of the size of the visa queue before FY2022 visa issuance, see the presentation by Charles Oppenheim for IIUSA in November 2021. To interact with the data and see source citations, access the Excel file of Key Backlog data linked to my EB-5 Timing page. I do not know if Congress would do this for EB-5. Q: What is Into-CRP? The fastest recent I-829 approvals I've heard of were for petitions filed in September 2020 and approved just five months later. The China backlog must particularly fight to lose as few visa numbers as possible, which means keeping their access to reserve visas if possible. The numbers alone tell a shocking story, and I could offer further spicy details about what's been going on specifically with processing, lack of industry engagement, and some evidence of conspiracy. In the entire month of November, only 14 I-526 were approved or denied.
Additionally, version 1. Quoted starting from minute 42] Oppenheim: In one way of looking at this, the INA guidelines clearly state how unused numbers within a preference category's annual limit should be made available to other preferences. EB-5 I-485 decisions, and which is apparently having a meltdown. For a reminder of how EB-5 visa distribution used to work, consider this slide from the "Visa Update with Charles Oppenheim and Roundtable Discussion" at the 2019 IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum (October 29, 2019). I considered a possible innocent explanation for falling I-526 completion rates: USCIS has been working since July on direct EB-5 cases, which they usually RFE before approving or denying, and the direct EB-5 inventory is relatively small.
Needless to say, USCIS did not intend to share such granular and timely data. Marketers would lament the persistently and organically low ROW I-526 numbers, and strategize to get more visas to offer the historically fruitful China/India/Vietnam markets now constrained by backlogs of old priority dates. In the October 2022 Regional Center Business Journal, and the above-linked Federal Register invitation to submit I-956 comments to USCIS. Xi] Assumes that the ratio of total visas to investor visas is about the same at Stage 3 as Stage 2. See also the most recent AIIA newsletter. I hope that just looking at this image can help conceptually. We don't know how many I-526 were filed in Q1, because the report gives a letter "D" in place of I-526 receipts. … I do think that there potentially will be some changes, at least to the language to clearly identify what is meant. This is extremely concerning, in light of what IPO demonstrably could do and needs to do. Going forward, EB-5 issuers hardly want to all compete for only one to two thousand investors a year spread across miscellaneous countries — and that's a best case assuming affordable investment levels. Notes on what did and didn't change in the law, and what's ambiguous. Rejection and resubmit (NOID). FO and other GC related.
That's the queue-cutting opportunity.